tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post1775548070517222759..comments2024-03-22T02:37:15.030-05:00Comments on Macro Musings Blog: Is There Really An Aggregate Demand Problem?David Beckworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-11050464404410647002012-04-27T10:00:01.956-05:002012-04-27T10:00:01.956-05:00David,
OK, I have read the paper by Koenig. Good ...David,<br /><br />OK, I have read the paper by Koenig. Good theoretical paper, couched within the context of a 2-period model.<br /><br />Now, let's get serious. <br /><br />What is the empirical evidence supporting the degree of nominal rigidity that would imply NGDP targeting right now would help get us out of this "slump?"<br /><br />I can see how such a policy might help dampen David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-62337858413076466432012-04-22T19:57:36.297-05:002012-04-22T19:57:36.297-05:00David,
Imagine the Fed had been following a NGDP ...David,<br /><br />Imagine the Fed had been following a NGDP level target prior to the financial crisis and it was a very credible policy (i.e. the public believed the Fed would do whatever was necessary to ensure the NGDP level target was hit). If this were in place, how could a systemic commitment shock ever emerge?David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-41224971264424557042012-04-22T18:08:41.937-05:002012-04-22T18:08:41.937-05:00David,
Try this article for starters: http://www....David,<br /><br />Try this article for starters: http://www.scribd.com/doc/88839511/Monetary-Policy-and-Risk-DistributionDavid Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-42829103534781324252012-04-22T11:52:15.469-05:002012-04-22T11:52:15.469-05:00David,
Do you have (or can you send me) a paper ...David, <br /><br />Do you have (or can you send me) a paper that lays out a mathematical model which supports your proposition? I am just curious to know the theoretical basis for the strong statement you are making. <br /><br />Thanks.David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-80642374799749013132012-04-13T13:21:30.926-05:002012-04-13T13:21:30.926-05:00Superb blogging.
It's the money stupid. Not ...Superb blogging. <br /><br />It's the money stupid. Not enough of it out there.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-21753445815642221262012-04-12T13:22:21.437-05:002012-04-12T13:22:21.437-05:00"....the agents that populate a multisector R..."....the agents that populate a multisector RBC model, subject to a sectoral shock that propagates intersectorally, would answer in the same way as people do in these surveys."<br /><br />Amazing.<br /><br />Real people running real businesses should be disregarded as to thier views on the economy , because our supply-side model says so. Virtual RBC people are smarter than the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-60289065923256250902012-04-12T10:15:00.885-05:002012-04-12T10:15:00.885-05:00Chris,
I had to contact the folks at NFIB. They g...Chris,<br /><br />I had to contact the folks at NFIB. They give it out upon request. If you contact me at the email address below I will be glad to forward you my copy of the data.David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-13842526832617919942012-04-12T10:13:19.345-05:002012-04-12T10:13:19.345-05:00David:
Yes, the breakdown in commitment and priva...David:<br /><br />Yes, the breakdown in commitment and private safe asset production can be viewed a real shock. But it could also be viewed as AD shock in the sense that the Fed failed to keep NGDP expectations stable in 2008 leading up to financial crash later that year. Had they kept NGDP expectations better anchored it is less likely the commitment shock would have occurred. <br /><br />TheDavid Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-85123862711301616972012-04-12T09:42:48.778-05:002012-04-12T09:42:48.778-05:00With regard to sticky wages--some occupations have...With regard to sticky wages--some occupations have less sticky wages than others and it should be expected that those with the least sticky wages should be among the first to recover.Richard A.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-9984171498712113622012-04-12T05:52:53.322-05:002012-04-12T05:52:53.322-05:00Sure, but why would I want to call that a breakdow...Sure, but why would I want to call that a breakdown in AD? Why not a breakdown in AS? <br /><br />We should try to be more precise about what the nature of the problem is, rather than attaching antiquated labels to its symptoms.<br /><br />And as for the labor market survey, there is a lot of other anecdotal evidence that suggests otherwise. I talk about some of it here:<br /><br />http://David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-90303451916498948252012-04-12T03:22:30.693-05:002012-04-12T03:22:30.693-05:00David, thanks for your inspiring posts. Where did ...David, thanks for your inspiring posts. Where did you get the NFIB time series for poor sales? I can only find it back to 2000.<br /><br />Thanks, ChrisChrisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-87471409669452528552012-04-11T23:28:09.529-05:002012-04-11T23:28:09.529-05:00David:
Yes, there is an identification problem wi...David:<br /><br />Yes, there is an identification problem with survey data, but when viewed with the other evidence to which I link, I think it is reasonable to take a strong stand on what the data are saying. <br /><br />If we view the problem from one of your favorite perspectives, the breakdown of commitment and thus safe assets, we can still tell an AD shortfall story. Monetary and fiscal David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-18332430717016092442012-04-11T22:45:42.477-05:002012-04-11T22:45:42.477-05:00David, the agents that populate a multisector RBC ...David, the agents that populate a multisector RBC model, subject to a sectoral shock that propagates intersectorally, would answer in the same way as people do in these surveys.<br /><br />I discuss this in a bit more detail here: http://andolfatto.blogspot.com/2010/12/deficient-demand-deflated-balloon.html<br /><br />So, I do not think you have the slam dunk evidence you think you have.David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.com