tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post2083628937013644275..comments2024-03-17T03:26:42.785-05:00Comments on Macro Musings Blog: Casey Mulligan Nails ItDavid Beckworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-48558294905642598212012-11-12T11:41:11.496-06:002012-11-12T11:41:11.496-06:00Meanwhile, here is the conventional wisdom... http...Meanwhile, here is the conventional wisdom... http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2012/111212b.htmSaturoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01914831276101897944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-86893500479415470082012-11-11T15:14:54.209-06:002012-11-11T15:14:54.209-06:00Yes, there is a story to be told on the big differ...Yes, there is a story to be told on the big differences. Here is a photo: https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth/status/267736674388291584/photo/1David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-22225084172582554642012-11-11T11:23:00.315-06:002012-11-11T11:23:00.315-06:00Thanks for that.
Re: the Sentiment Survey, For th...Thanks for that.<br /><br />Re: the Sentiment Survey, For the mean to be 4-5% and the median to be ca. 2% is a huge difference. And the 47% are all below median.<br /><br />Yes it tells a parallel story, but it also tells an additional story of a large segment of the population with very rational low expectations. <br /><br />I have to believe that putting more money in the hands of these Jazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-80787804981117552712012-11-11T08:08:06.535-06:002012-11-11T08:08:06.535-06:00MZM is largely retail money assets so it ignores m...MZM is largely retail money assets so it ignores most institutional money assets. With that said, if you look at the components of MZM, the one that has grown the most it is saving deposits, the highest yield FDIC-protected asset. Other assets not protected by FDIC have fallen over this period. I see this as evidence of increased demand for safe assets, at least by households. (http://David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-88609509635205861042012-11-10T23:17:12.805-06:002012-11-10T23:17:12.805-06:00OK - I glossed over the first line. However, in t...OK - I glossed over the first line. However, in the middle you also say "I think a better story is . . ." But let's not get hung up on that.<br /><br />I'm more interested in the passive tightening FED scenario. But that looks quite different if you chose a different measure. Here are MZM and MZM velocity.<br /><br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=cHq<br /><Jazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-82189560383569130522012-11-10T20:32:08.468-06:002012-11-10T20:32:08.468-06:00Jazzbumpa, cheers to you too! So my qualifier on t...Jazzbumpa, cheers to you too! So my qualifier on the first line is good enough for you? Look, we may disagree with Mulligan on the importance of the labor market incentive story, but we should at least acknowledge that he sees something--the suddent drop in aggregate economic activity--that can't be explained by a sector reallocation story. Many folks don't get that far. And hopefully David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-12260929251359047072012-11-10T20:26:58.030-06:002012-11-10T20:26:58.030-06:00TGGP, Mulligan's work on money demand is limit...TGGP, Mulligan's work on money demand is limited (as far as I can tell) to traditional measures of money like M2. Maybe he does not see that what is money has expanded beyond those assets. I am hoping this post gives him a chance to think about this possibility.David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-91471623293064932282012-11-10T20:23:45.205-06:002012-11-10T20:23:45.205-06:00Anonymous, cheer up. If you actually follow the a...Anonymous, cheer up. If you actually follow the above links to the money asset data you will see this is not "argument by assertion." Also check out my paper with Josh Hendrickson titled <a href="http://people.wku.edu/david.beckworth/assetshortages.pdf" rel="nofollow">Transaction Asset Shortages</a> where we formally develop some of the points and provide further empirical evidence on David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-58425471682274017942012-11-10T15:33:45.945-06:002012-11-10T15:33:45.945-06:00It was the money, stupid. Not enough of it.
So now...It was the money, stupid. Not enough of it.<br />So now we know. Thank you so much for your enlightenment. Argument by assertion has always been a great way to advance science. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-56784203709573858642012-11-10T00:23:05.188-06:002012-11-10T00:23:05.188-06:00Great blooging.
There is a surfeit of "expla...Great blooging.<br /><br />There is a surfeit of "explanations" for the Great Recession that always seem to exactly buttress some pre-existing political agenda, left or right. <br /><br />It was the money, stupid. Not enough of it.<br /><br />Sure, the lightest possible taxes and regs are best. But the USA economy grew nicely for the previous 20 years. Then whammo?<br /><br />There may Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-86012299558205156812012-11-09T22:16:39.086-06:002012-11-09T22:16:39.086-06:00I'm not familiar with Mulligan's work on m...I'm not familiar with Mulligan's work on money-demand. What I've read of him on the internet seems to focus just on microeconomics, minimizing the importance of macro topics like that (and arguing the Fed doesn't have much impact).TGGPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11017651009634767649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-44503940357456660022012-11-09T18:33:16.272-06:002012-11-09T18:33:16.272-06:00So Mulligan nails it, in so far as he agrees with ...So Mulligan nails it, in so far as he agrees with Krugman, then largely goes off the rails.<br /><br />I really think the Great Vacation Theory is indefensible. You have to believe that people prefer UI to a paycheck, and that is a sufficient incentive to forgo not only more money in both the short and long runs, but also the stability and financial security of employment, and the dignity of Jazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com