tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post2969346335823028686..comments2024-03-22T02:37:15.030-05:00Comments on Macro Musings Blog: Is It Structural or Cyclical Unemployment?David Beckworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-57480128022340778012010-08-04T20:14:46.335-05:002010-08-04T20:14:46.335-05:00Long-term, structural unemployment is real and is ...Long-term, structural unemployment is real and is here to stay. Even those economists who are beginning to recognize the problem vastly underestimate the ultimate impact. It is not just about a "skill mismatch." It is ultimately going to be about a total lack of demand for skills (and workers). It is something unprecidented and it is caused by advancing technology. And ,no, it is NOT Robertnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-10446522262258446632010-08-04T13:16:39.826-05:002010-08-04T13:16:39.826-05:00You say "Frictional unemployment, which is a ...You say "Frictional unemployment, which is a function of search costs, most likely hasn't changed that much."<br /><br />But surely mobility costs are part of frictional unemployment and, with so much of the population (especially the unemployed population) stuck in underwater houses, mobility costs, and thus frictional unemployment, have significantly increased in recent years.rhabythttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12459845069075006454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-2980593048441535012010-07-31T15:37:56.479-05:002010-07-31T15:37:56.479-05:00Probably worth looking at this in light of Stephen...Probably worth looking at this in light of Stephen Williamson's latest entry. Real GDP right now is either at trend (according to H-P filter, US trend growth rate now is about zero!) or 15% below trend, using a linear trend of last 100 years.<br />Something very dramatic is going on with the US economy, and as Steve says, we'd better damn well figure it out.ecbnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-78585593141530340872010-07-29T20:38:21.129-05:002010-07-29T20:38:21.129-05:00I suppose unemployment is cyclical if the worker k...I suppose unemployment is cyclical if the worker knows that there will be a job to go back to when business picks up. Much of today's unemployment is structural because a good service sector job represents an investment on the part of both the employer and the employee. The recession is the result of a decade of massive mis-directed investment in the US economy. Many of the jobs that are lostCharleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00607057013050715435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-23781550333488892692010-07-29T10:06:42.555-05:002010-07-29T10:06:42.555-05:00David,
Service sector job losses (as of Aug, '...David,<br /><br />Service sector job losses (as of Aug, '09) made up 50% of the total in this recession. In the two previous recessions, the number was closer to 18%. This poses a number of questions:<br /><br />What is the nature of a service sector output gap? The concept itself seems rooted in the behavior of industrial capacity. This made sense when job losses were concentrated in David Pearsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-70769431872446381782010-07-29T07:21:44.923-05:002010-07-29T07:21:44.923-05:00Mr. Anonymous,
I am interested in technological ...Mr. Anonymous, <br /><br />I am interested in technological change. However, I am curious, what is the path of real wages, real interest rates, and the real prices of natural resources described by this book? Does the book really say that there will be no use for human labor? Exactly who will real wages move towards zero over time?<br /><br />Perhaps there is serious economic analysis, but IBill Woolseyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06330232724290161369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-42676823614340443542010-07-28T23:57:05.888-05:002010-07-28T23:57:05.888-05:00The structural unemployment that is developing is ...The structural unemployment that is developing is not just about a "skill mismatch." It is ultimately going to be about a total lack of demand for skills (and workers). It is something unprecidented and it is caused by advancing technology. And ,no, it is NOT the same thing that has been going on for decades. Technology is moving faster and faster. In the next couple of decades will Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-43306265831985461732010-07-28T21:59:17.297-05:002010-07-28T21:59:17.297-05:00Jazzbumpa,
Sumner published a paper in 1989 on ta...Jazzbumpa,<br /><br />Sumner published a paper in 1989 on targeting nominal income. Still, I was hoping to discover that Bob Dole's presidential campaign had picked up on the idea for his campaign in 1996. We academic economists are always happy with some politician takes our notions seriously.<br /><br />But I couldn't find anything. The paper you cite was about a proposal to have Bill Woolseyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06330232724290161369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-35283959415662072422010-07-28T17:49:09.889-05:002010-07-28T17:49:09.889-05:00In addition to uncertainty about the size of the O...In addition to uncertainty about the size of the Okun's law coefficient (as noted by Jazzbumpa), there is a problem with nonlinear relationships that are assumed to be linear and dynamic relationships that are treated as static. <br /><br />For example, the relationship between job vacancies and output is both dynamic and nonlinear. The relationship cannot be linear, because the number of Andy Harlesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17582263872850949568noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-32531530329361752442010-07-28T15:12:46.122-05:002010-07-28T15:12:46.122-05:00An Okun's law argument is only as good as the ...An Okun's law argument is only as good as the estimate of the slope - which is probably subject to wild inaccuracies. Especially given the numbers in the table, with real unemployment (U6) around 16%.<br /><br />But the structural vs cyclical argument is a bit fatuous, isn't it? The focus should be on solutions now, before the structural employment becomes intractable.<br /><br />SumnerJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-20249123415275798172010-07-28T14:26:18.273-05:002010-07-28T14:26:18.273-05:00The extent of structural vs. cyclical unemployment...The extent of structural vs. cyclical unemployment is academic. So far a policy goes, the prescription is the same: boost aggregate demand and do not frustrate labour reallocation.Lee Kellyhttp://www.criticalrationalism.netnoreply@blogger.com