tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post364700379579311029..comments2024-03-22T02:37:15.030-05:00Comments on Macro Musings Blog: Real Apprecation In China, One Way or the OtherDavid Beckworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-36501150021870726702011-02-02T21:51:08.041-06:002011-02-02T21:51:08.041-06:00http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj28n2/cj28n2-4.p...http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj28n2/cj28n2-4.pdf<br /><br />A decent discussion worth reading.K Srallanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-8990166854086853362011-02-02T21:02:09.363-06:002011-02-02T21:02:09.363-06:00Henry
Couldn´t resist commenting on your comment. ...Henry<br />Couldn´t resist commenting on your comment. The fact was that pre crisis - mid 07 to mid 08, MP was not expansionary at all, quite the contrary! That´s a major reason for the crisis being so "devastating".João Marcushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13658264244033012660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-83129582781026888992011-02-02T20:09:00.020-06:002011-02-02T20:09:00.020-06:00Strange then that the US' expansionary monetar...Strange then that the US' expansionary monetary policy pre-crisis did not force China into real appreciation. A mix of stringent capital controls and effective sterilization has worked in the past, why shoudln't it going forward?Henry Kasparhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01775593288758332686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-9324698330132922502011-02-02T13:13:11.982-06:002011-02-02T13:13:11.982-06:00It would be interesting to know what the fiscal co...It would be interesting to know what the fiscal costs are and why you think these costs impose limits.<br /><br />The increased allowance of yuan in international transactions could affect things too. If Chinese exporters can get paid in yuan by the IKEAs of the world, then the PBoC need print less yuan for dollars.JP Koninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02559687323828006535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-34020319534186362092011-02-02T10:54:53.426-06:002011-02-02T10:54:53.426-06:00I am probably preaching to the choir, but I think ...I am probably preaching to the choir, but I think those interested in what is happening here would do well to go back and re-read Leland Yeager's seminal work International Monetary Relations (1966,1976).K Srallanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-86302407886329881302011-02-02T09:14:32.162-06:002011-02-02T09:14:32.162-06:00JP:
Yes, but even with sterilization there is a l...JP:<br /><br />Yes, but even with sterilization there is a limit as it imposes fiscal costs.David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-63623961898713495972011-02-02T07:18:35.392-06:002011-02-02T07:18:35.392-06:00DB: So... real appreciation in China, one way or t...DB: So... real appreciation in China, one way or the other (unless they fully sterilize).JP Koninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02559687323828006535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-5726973416026405772011-02-01T22:26:07.884-06:002011-02-01T22:26:07.884-06:00JP Koning,
The rise in inflation indicates China ...JP Koning,<br /><br />The rise in inflation indicates China is not fully sterilizing all all the monetary stimulus being imported from the Fed.David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-25278699215392823262011-02-01T21:50:20.820-06:002011-02-01T21:50:20.820-06:00JP:
Sterilization has a host of serious side effe...JP:<br /><br />Sterilization has a host of serious side effects. <br /><br />Picture the Titanic. One compartment floods, then the next, then the next. The distortions caused by sterilization will eventually spill inflation over into the domestic Chinese economy (which is happening now). Sterilization is a patch that can keep the ship from flooding for a while, but not indefinitely.K Srallanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-41362113415668500292011-02-01T19:02:32.490-06:002011-02-01T19:02:32.490-06:00What about sterilization? QE2 and its effect on Ch...What about sterilization? QE2 and its effect on Chinese inflation shouldn't be a problem if, for every yuan the PBOC creates to buy more dollars, the PBOC later buys it back through sterilization bills. Which they are doing.JP Koninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02559687323828006535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-35464623665824484242011-02-01T10:58:09.443-06:002011-02-01T10:58:09.443-06:00DB: Jeffrey Frankel had an article on this, "...DB: Jeffrey Frankel had an article on this, "Balassa Samuelson & the renminbi"<br />It was in 2006, so might be worth updating.ecbnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-73586166604106840372011-02-01T08:54:45.524-06:002011-02-01T08:54:45.524-06:00David,
I am still bothered by something that has ...David,<br /><br />I am still bothered by something that has been said earlier here. <br /><br />As I explained to Bill Woolsey somewhere, I travel some internationally, and the world economy just does not look like one that is short of money to me. Possibly two years ago, but not now. <br /><br />There are shortages of raw materials rapidly developing all over, and the prices of these raw K Srallanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-42815686892788723072011-01-31T15:51:38.847-06:002011-01-31T15:51:38.847-06:00In my little industrial neighborhood, I have neigh...In my little industrial neighborhood, I have neighbors in the garment and cabinet industry. <br /><br />Both report that getting shipment from China today is more expensive, and that sellers want larger minimum orders than five years ago.<br /><br />I thik there will be spillover into Thailand, and othernations.<br /><br />But long-run, we may actually see manufacturing return to US. If the lastBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com