tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post3838346197217573515..comments2024-03-22T02:37:15.030-05:00Comments on Macro Musings Blog: Bernanke's Friday Night Special: Part IDavid Beckworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-83401877631237543992013-03-07T11:06:37.417-06:002013-03-07T11:06:37.417-06:00This paper was so well written that I sent it to o...This paper was so well written that I sent it to one of my private sector clients who was clueless about how German interest rates have evolved over years (OK, most of my private sector clients are generally clueless on anything related to economics), which basically resolved a discussion we were having earlier on Friday. Now that my client has a clue - my project for him is virtually wrapped upProGrowthLiberalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17138489390594441753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-53623704981613825612013-03-06T20:51:03.257-06:002013-03-06T20:51:03.257-06:00nominal interest rates drop due to debt deflation ...nominal interest rates drop due to debt deflation and little inflation inside the mechanism. <br /><br />trying to artificially forcing nominal rates up would destroy the US economy. All credit holders would demand repayment liquidating and essentially making the US a non-entity. <br /><br />It all comes back to debt servicing. Once it falls below debt production, the US economy will recover to Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-23219600176258126092013-03-06T10:24:06.180-06:002013-03-06T10:24:06.180-06:00Hey David, I actually have no interest in macroeco...Hey David, I actually have no interest in macroeconomics of this sort but I was once your student at Texas State and we worked on a project together dealing with Consumer Confidence studies. Just wanted to tell you I'm currently in my 4th year of the University of Houston's PhD program in Economics. Thanks for the help you gave me back in undergrad, it was invaluable in furthering my Jason Bestnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-44131069247330954952013-03-05T17:08:47.267-06:002013-03-05T17:08:47.267-06:00I've been doing research on this issue (Fed...I've been doing research on this issue (Fed's Treasury holdings) over the past several years, and reached similar conclusions.<br /><br />The Fed's share of the Treasury market was about 16% in 2000, peaked at 20% in 2002, and then fell pretty much in a straight line back to 16% in 2007.<br /><br />Meanwhile, the Treasury market share of foreign governments went from 20% in 2000 to 40Justin Rietznoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-21612326488462131152013-03-05T00:39:33.142-06:002013-03-05T00:39:33.142-06:00An interesting post.
The long-term trend in sover...An interesting post.<br /><br />The long-term trend in sovereign yields---does it suggest global gluts of capital? Savers save not because of interest rates, but for retirement, college, house buying, security, college etc? Traditional reasons too? Some cultures are savings oriented.<br /><br />If true, could we see a prolonged secular trend towards ZLB---unless the Fed gets serious about QE?<brBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-560354487010924152013-03-04T19:03:02.432-06:002013-03-04T19:03:02.432-06:00David,
The Fed's influence on the term premium...David,<br />The Fed's influence on the term premium is a function of its (expected) impact on the overall supply and demand for duration. It impacts supply directly by purchasing >5yr maturities in the Treasury and MBS markets; and indirectly through the front-running effect. It impacts demand by committing to hold down rate volatility and thus encouraging duration bets. The % of Diego Espinosanoreply@blogger.com