tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post4166789483454110086..comments2024-03-22T02:37:15.030-05:00Comments on Macro Musings Blog: What Was the Stance of Monetary Policy Late Last Year?David Beckworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-33907802781748498472009-10-02T17:12:33.301-05:002009-10-02T17:12:33.301-05:00Nick, the current nominal spending growth rate is ...Nick, the current nominal spending growth rate is calculated October 2009 over October 2008.David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-89585192316365203952009-10-02T14:46:03.842-05:002009-10-02T14:46:03.842-05:00David:
Interesting, and roughly plausible.
One c...David:<br /><br />Interesting, and roughly plausible.<br /><br />One clarification needed. Your metric right now: would it be the October 2009 over October 2008 NGDP growth rate, minus the October 2009 fed funds rate? (Just not clear if this is a forward-or backward-looking growth rate.)Nick Rowehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04982579343160429422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-89737030293434335142009-10-02T14:18:33.065-05:002009-10-02T14:18:33.065-05:00Since 1992, the real price of energy and the nomin...Since 1992, the real price of energy and the nominal price has been in lockstep, probably a correlation much greater than 60%. So, running the same regression against oil, I would likely expect a change in oil production to have a large impact on the output gap some 20 months out. My speculation remains, monetary stance is dictated by oil which dictates the economy.Matt Younghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08404998406161097199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-80712337482433270432009-10-02T13:00:46.664-05:002009-10-02T13:00:46.664-05:00Hey Arnold,
What the scatterplot shows is two ver...Hey Arnold,<br /><br />What the scatterplot shows is two very different series. The output gap is how far output has deviated from its full employment level(a real measure). The other measure shows the gap between nominal spending and the federal funds rate (both nominal measures). This latter measure can reasonably be interpreted as the stance of monetary policy. Hence, the scatterplot shows David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-47419834884870966082009-10-02T12:52:45.018-05:002009-10-02T12:52:45.018-05:00In other words, the percent change in X today expl...In other words, the percent change in X today explains 60 percent of the level of X in 5 quarters. Interesting, but does not necessarily say anything about monetary policy.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01677375826929404193noreply@blogger.com