tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post4711775038605111802..comments2024-03-22T02:37:15.030-05:00Comments on Macro Musings Blog: Further Evidence Against the Recalcuation View of the Great RecessionDavid Beckworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-2539495219994417742012-01-24T20:18:16.844-06:002012-01-24T20:18:16.844-06:00Worth mentioning is that parallel commercial real ...Worth mentioning is that parallel commercial real estate bust. Commercial values fell in half in the Great Recession. The commercial market is about one-thrid the size of the residential market.<br /><br />This again suggests that real estate busts were triggered by a decline in AD.<br /><br />The question is, why did the fed cut AD? To fight commodities inflation.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-22128886723760188252012-01-24T11:19:55.076-06:002012-01-24T11:19:55.076-06:00Why don't economists track the actual individu...Why don't economists track the actual individuals in the population -- recalculation is a disaggregated story. <br /><br />Field studies tracking individuals are real science in biology.<br /><br />Economists seem too lazy to do real science.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-73135647721152118472011-02-04T08:14:42.849-06:002011-02-04T08:14:42.849-06:00I wrote in a simple way about the simple parts of ...I wrote in a simple way about the simple parts of this controversy here:<br /><br />http://www.cobdencentre.org/2011/02/money-is-barren-but-occasionally-covers-us-in-dust/Currenthttp://www.cobdencentre.org/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-25249743804092400302011-01-25T12:03:01.108-06:002011-01-25T12:03:01.108-06:00One aspect of construction unemployment that is no...One aspect of construction unemployment that is not discussed is the role of illegal immigrants.<br /><br />In the West and South during the housing boom, illegal aliens were employed in construction jobs in huge numbers.<br /><br />I suspect that their job loss isn't reflected in the government statistics.Hegemonkeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12844164699958496745noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-31320873133571536572011-01-24T01:13:14.197-06:002011-01-24T01:13:14.197-06:00I keep arguing that it was energy prices that tipp...I keep arguing that it was energy prices that tipped a shaky economy in mid-2008 into a bad recession in late 2008. Yes, the housing sector was in decline and in retrospect, the economy was absorbing it pretty well. But it was energy prices + declining housing values that hit consumers, then businesses. <br /><br />It seems to me that Sumner's prescription was to keep the party going and Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-21418229396491792352011-01-24T00:07:21.050-06:002011-01-24T00:07:21.050-06:00I agree with Anonymous.
On the structural point ...I agree with Anonymous. <br /><br />On the structural point here are some more studies which indicate that skilled labour shortages are a minor problem for employers compared to other factors.<br /><br />1. http://www.nfib.com/Portals/0/PDF/sbet/sbet201009.pdf (See in particular page 18).<br /><br />2. http://www.blumshapiro.com/pub/articles/BlumShapiroCBIASurvey.pdf (Page 4 in particular).<brRalph Musgravehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09443857766263185665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-64044642478413122702011-01-23T22:21:30.518-06:002011-01-23T22:21:30.518-06:00Austrian ideology demands that they view the unemp...Austrian ideology demands that they view the unemployment situation as structural. Facts and data are not going to sway anybody's belief system.<br /><br />From what I've seen of Murphy, he's a sloppy thinker, as well.<br /><br />In your linked article, Murphy supports the Austrian view with cherry picked, marginally relevant data graphs that illustrate in at least one case what Jazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-54625371085974020852011-01-23T19:10:51.706-06:002011-01-23T19:10:51.706-06:00"The data seems very clear to me. It indicat..."The data seems very clear to me. It indicates there was a housing bust that was putting a damper on economic activity, but by itself was not large enough to create the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Rather, that required the failure of Fed officials to stabilize nominal spending in 2008. "<br /><br />-----------<br /><br />The picture as I understood, was that the housing bubble Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-42908503559810445902011-01-23T18:06:54.734-06:002011-01-23T18:06:54.734-06:00Excellent clarity and superb post.Excellent clarity and superb post.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-57449552805275663152011-01-23T18:02:54.533-06:002011-01-23T18:02:54.533-06:00Good post.
What about employment growth?
As I se...Good post.<br /><br />What about employment growth?<br /><br />As I see it, this recession is _not_ high layoffs causing a decrease in employment, but rather a slight increase in layoffs during teh worst part of the recession combined several years of unusually low hires.<br /><br />As you have shown, the jump in layoffs did occur when nominal GDP dropped. However, the consistently low new Bill Woolseyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06330232724290161369noreply@blogger.com