tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post6039068643404135634..comments2024-03-17T03:26:42.785-05:00Comments on Macro Musings Blog: Martin Wolf's Counterfactual QuestionDavid Beckworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-88368118488279116802009-08-17T10:33:47.458-05:002009-08-17T10:33:47.458-05:00ECB:
Good question. If FIRE did make up most of ...ECB:<br /><br />Good question. If FIRE did make up most of the rapid productivity growth, then it would undermine my claim that the neutral federal funds rate was increasing during the early-to-mid 2000s because productivity was increasing. I don't know enough to provide a satisfactory answer. I can think of two developments, however, that would suggest there was some real basis to the David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-7139706584746702582009-08-16T15:45:20.005-05:002009-08-16T15:45:20.005-05:00David, have you considered just how much of that p...David, have you considered just how much of that productivity growth was genuine? This was a period of tremendous FIRE expansion - the financial sector taking a larger fraction of the economy. My understanding is that there are enormous problems in measuring the productivity of financial institutions, so this productivity growth may be bogus, which would fit with the weak employment performance ECBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-22323071396577809452009-08-14T14:13:17.181-05:002009-08-14T14:13:17.181-05:00"What would interest rates have been if there..."What would interest rates have been if there were no Fed?" asks Neil.<br />If John Lennon was still around, he'd have to add another line to "Imagine" wouldn't he? "Imagine no central banks, no Bernanke too. Its easy if you try....."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-83160177974413825932009-08-14T10:29:01.879-05:002009-08-14T10:29:01.879-05:00David,
My biggest question for the moneterists an...David, <br />My biggest question for the moneterists and fed supporters is this... <br />What would interest rates have been if there were no FED? I think they would have been considerably higher since American savings have been pretty much zero. Now if you include "Chimerica" what would the interest rates be then? Does Asian savings make up for the lack of savings here enough to TexanNavyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15473969454552606499noreply@blogger.com