tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post636160830721948942..comments2024-03-22T02:37:15.030-05:00Comments on Macro Musings Blog: My Supply-Side Senses Are Starting to TingleDavid Beckworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-10090370078884258912013-10-20T15:24:34.844-05:002013-10-20T15:24:34.844-05:00I'm assuming that you consider 0.5% as an acce...I'm assuming that you consider 0.5% as an acceptable number. I'm curious, though, if you would prefer to wait it out and see if the CBO is correct or if you think that this is a big enough problem to warrant a change in the law immediately.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10702836575112229378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-85525077482103780382013-10-18T16:57:02.659-05:002013-10-18T16:57:02.659-05:00Alex, Salon calling up some employers is not a goo...Alex, Salon calling up some employers is not a good indication of anything. Do you really think the Foundation of Employee Benefits Plan--a professional HR organization--would do so sloppy a survey? And the same for Gallup? Dismissing these, the NFIB, and link of documented firms cutting back (linked to above) sounds likes you are working too hard to preserve your priors. Go read the first David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-64865447361219708832013-10-18T16:36:41.050-05:002013-10-18T16:36:41.050-05:00Found this link today and it applies to this discu...Found this link today and it applies to this discussion. <br /><br />An employer was one Sean Hannity and said that he was cutting work hours because of Obamacare. A Salon reporter called him and asked how many employees he had; he had 4. Obamacare only requires employers with 50 or more employees to provide insurance. The employer on Hannity pretty much admitted that he had other reasons to Alex Bollingernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-40447997655906549462013-10-18T08:08:22.026-05:002013-10-18T08:08:22.026-05:00When we disaggregate part-time work down to econom...When we disaggregate part-time work down to economic and non-economic reasons, and compare these trends to 2012, we see two things. First, part-time work for economic reasons for 2013 is following the trend for 2012. Second, the spike in part-time work was largely due to non-economic reasons (72%). <br /><br />http://pinetreeconomics.wordpress.com/2013/10/15/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-11516630879705354782013-10-17T19:08:20.072-05:002013-10-17T19:08:20.072-05:00I'm a bit more skeptical about survey data. I ...I'm a bit more skeptical about survey data. I haven't seen the second survey you posted, but the SBET is probably influenced by the non-stop propaganda 20-some percent of America has been consuming that's telling them that the black/Kenyan/Indonesian/Communist/Socialist/Muslim/atheist in the White House and his gang of leftists in the Senate are going to increase all regulations, Alex Bollingernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-55437549532395249552013-10-17T12:56:34.337-05:002013-10-17T12:56:34.337-05:00To the extent they are caught in the conservative ...To the extent they are caught in the conservative echo chamber that is exactly where it comes from.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-23860917184108902952013-10-17T12:54:01.665-05:002013-10-17T12:54:01.665-05:00Here is the problem with your idea from a scaling ...Here is the problem with your idea from a scaling problem. 94% of all firms with 50+ employees already provide coverage. Now are they taking advantage of a once in a lifetime opportunity to shaft employees? Maybe so.<br /><br />This screwing of labor has been going on for 30+ years. For example, Kaiser's healthcare yearly survey has seen cost shifting in the last 5 years of a scale not Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-60416473375395083212013-10-17T11:11:25.431-05:002013-10-17T11:11:25.431-05:00I wonder how much of the spike in concerns about r...I wonder how much of the spike in concerns about regulation is due to fear mongering rather than rational evaluations ?Bill Ellisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-77954906061515221032013-10-17T08:41:19.102-05:002013-10-17T08:41:19.102-05:00Obamacare is an obvious regulatory problem today, ...Obamacare is an obvious regulatory problem today, but what caused the increase in regulatory issues starting in mid 2008? The long term chart on regulations shows long term upswings and downswings. What are the major drivers? Do they stem from the federal government, state governments or from the local level? Cities and counties have been known to be pretty anal about the requirements they imposeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-57458990407069350662013-10-17T06:57:40.685-05:002013-10-17T06:57:40.685-05:00Good post David. I think you should also look at t...Good post David. I think you should also look at the "Labor Quality" data as confirmation for demand-side problems. In normal times, some firms will report difficulties in hiring good quality labour as their most important problem. When AD falls, fewer firms will report difficulties hiring. In 2008/9 the "labor quality" dog stopped barking, and the "lack of sales" Nick Rowehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04982579343160429422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-78487648078654052102013-10-17T01:22:54.102-05:002013-10-17T01:22:54.102-05:00David,
I tend to agree with you on this. As you k...David,<br /><br />I tend to agree with you on this. As you know I have recently been making the point that it was time for the Fed to led bygones be bygones and start to look forward instead and deliver NGDP growth of 4-5% from the present levels and I don't think that there would be much to gain by an attempt to make a "one-time shock" to demand to push down unemployment. <br /><brLars Christensenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08409946182659964026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-59741732873995380302013-10-16T22:33:48.908-05:002013-10-16T22:33:48.908-05:00gofx - David, its even worse if you add together t...gofx - David, its even worse if you add together the Taxes and the Regulation dimensions. Krugman will never see this, but both are governmental drags on business profitability via policy, and many regulatory actions have tax consequences associated with them, directly or indirectly. This "government drag" dimension is usually on par or higher than the Poor Sales dimension. This is not Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-19527388023540659862013-10-16T20:24:01.825-05:002013-10-16T20:24:01.825-05:00First time on your site, interesting discussion. I...First time on your site, interesting discussion. I believe the effects are temporary currently for the ACA and what we are seeing is simply a paradigm shift in market labor. The real question is going to be how the market looks once workers start being forced to participate in the insurance market place. For a place like Massachusetts where almost everyone had insurance anyway and is one of the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-73878252971966786052013-10-16T18:43:05.133-05:002013-10-16T18:43:05.133-05:00David,
The biggest issue with Obamacare's effe...David,<br />The biggest issue with Obamacare's effect on business may be occur through a game theoretic dynamic.<br /><br />Imagine in a competitive market, firms decide to offer health insurance (given the tax benefit) as a means of attracting labor. Of course, they would rather not. Cutting it back is a non-transparent way of reducing their wage bill. The only thing that keeps them from Diego Espinosanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-44023356118202466252013-10-16T14:53:20.002-05:002013-10-16T14:53:20.002-05:00I hope the CBO is right on the aggregate effects. ...I hope the CBO is right on the aggregate effects. Thanks for link.David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-9791511113163562162013-10-16T14:52:19.631-05:002013-10-16T14:52:19.631-05:00right, I think june was the start of the "loo...right, I think june was the start of the "lookback" to determine # of full time and part time workers. as I recall, there were 360k new part time jobs that month and a loss of 240k full time jobs, leaving total hours about the same but a manager's nightmare,Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-48650784144529554982013-10-16T14:52:04.881-05:002013-10-16T14:52:04.881-05:00Thanks for the information. That explains a lot. Y...Thanks for the information. That explains a lot. Yes, marginal decision making is being distorted. The question is how big is this effect overall. David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-62788381375249521212013-10-16T14:49:35.512-05:002013-10-16T14:49:35.512-05:00Great point Marcus. An interesting question, then,...Great point Marcus. An interesting question, then, is whether Obamacare would have passed had there been no Great Recession.David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-79697944970213313042013-10-16T14:49:12.026-05:002013-10-16T14:49:12.026-05:00check out consumer spending, especially for servic...check out consumer spending, especially for services (and esp excluding autos), growth has been terribleAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-7809109892542548972013-10-16T14:40:14.583-05:002013-10-16T14:40:14.583-05:00David, that´s almost the natural consequence of a ...David, that´s almost the natural consequence of a deep and protracted demand slump. At a minimum, governments itch to legislate a recovery. The unintended consequence is that it works in reverse!João Marcushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13658264244033012660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-73696867871798629082013-10-16T13:31:41.634-05:002013-10-16T13:31:41.634-05:00There is no private sector slump in the United Sta...There is no private sector slump in the United States. It has been growing at 4% for about 4 years now. The problem is the public sector "contraction" which has never happened before in the modern statistical era. <br /><br />Thus, the problem isn't demand or supply. There is no problem. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-56952385084267998882013-10-16T12:39:04.381-05:002013-10-16T12:39:04.381-05:00This is definitely a problem, but I don't thin...This is definitely a problem, but I don't think that the aggregate effects will be too big. The CBO estimated that, on net, the ACA will cause the amount of labor used in the economy to fall by 0.5% - mainly through a voluntary contraction in the supply of labor (page 48 if you're interested): http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/117xx/doc11705/08-18-update.pdf<br /><brAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10702836575112229378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-73711671655012607772013-10-16T11:56:59.905-05:002013-10-16T11:56:59.905-05:00Two things:
First, the rules are apparently backw...Two things:<br /><br />First, the rules are apparently backward looking, so that firms will get hit in 2014, if they are not up to standard the prior year according to a couple possible metrics, so they need to start changing now if this report is correct:<br /><br />http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887323783704578245593154260184<br /><br />Second, it was my understanding that the@YoungEconnoreply@blogger.com