tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post124593577574873420..comments2024-03-22T02:37:15.030-05:00Comments on Macro Musings Blog: QE2 and Rising YieldsDavid Beckworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-89133424665961255052010-12-15T14:30:41.157-06:002010-12-15T14:30:41.157-06:00How does the fact that bond yields jumped material...How does the fact that bond yields jumped materially after no hints at an expansion of QEII in yesterday's FOMC press release impact your analysis. Seems to contradict some of those that you quoted...Alex Sebastiannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-52160267613199691472010-12-13T13:37:57.732-06:002010-12-13T13:37:57.732-06:00JDTapp: I was disappointed with his explanation of...JDTapp: I was disappointed with his explanation of how QE2 could work.<br /><br />Rebecca: Dave or David is fine, no worries. In regards to your questions, first, I readily admit this is a highly speculative post. I would want to see a lot more data points before become truly convinced myself. Jazzbumpa may be right that the the latest movements may end being inconsequential.<br /><br />With thatDavid Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-23703455155793242692010-12-13T13:18:53.818-06:002010-12-13T13:18:53.818-06:00John Cochrane is a boob-Nipponista.
Mild deflatio...John Cochrane is a boob-Nipponista.<br /><br />Mild deflation is good? Has he never heard of Japan?<br /><br />Mild inflation is bad--as in the 1980s-1990s in the USA? Oh, we suffered so much. <br /><br />The Nipponistas are the mose dire threat America faces today--they make the Taliban look microscopic, in comparison.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-74147081057759953552010-12-13T12:39:29.887-06:002010-12-13T12:39:29.887-06:00P.S. David, sorry for addressing you as Dave earli...P.S. David, sorry for addressing you as Dave earlier! RebeccaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-87070591338581205302010-12-13T12:37:25.420-06:002010-12-13T12:37:25.420-06:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-30761864820233152582010-12-13T12:35:56.717-06:002010-12-13T12:35:56.717-06:00Dave,
What I struggle with is the rising real yie...Dave,<br /><br />What I struggle with is the rising real yield part of the story. Sure, the Fed isn't targeting lower nominal yields - but it should at least be looking for falling real yields, at least if it wants to stimulate macroeconomic activity it will (as much as it can stimulate macroeconomic activity through a credit channel that remains quite clogged).<br /><br />Perhaps the real Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-92086409529674352622010-12-11T19:40:57.345-06:002010-12-11T19:40:57.345-06:00Have you had a chance to check out John Cochrane&#...Have you had a chance to check out John Cochrane's <a href="http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/john.cochrane/research/papers/QEII.html" rel="nofollow">latest response to QE2?</a>Justin D. Tapphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12618278252714742391noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-88981996533977046182010-12-11T08:32:11.407-06:002010-12-11T08:32:11.407-06:00This comment has been removed by the author.nanutehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04526158764171117978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-76887448234622638722010-12-11T06:20:49.080-06:002010-12-11T06:20:49.080-06:00This comment has been removed by the author.Bill Woolseyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06330232724290161369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-404393444757694902010-12-11T06:19:59.514-06:002010-12-11T06:19:59.514-06:00This comment has been removed by the author.Bill Woolseyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06330232724290161369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-22303278705186969212010-12-11T06:19:44.193-06:002010-12-11T06:19:44.193-06:00nanute:
You need to think about this just a bit m...nanute:<br /><br />You need to think about this just a bit more.<br /><br />While I don't know what Bernanke is trying to do for sure, the reality is that an expansion of the quantity of money _can_ raise real rates through expectations of higher levels of output and employment in the future.<br /><br />I think your error is holding credit demand for credit (or, equivalently, the supply of Bill Woolseyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06330232724290161369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-52514577906721977722010-12-11T05:31:17.574-06:002010-12-11T05:31:17.574-06:00I should have added one other point: The velocity ...I should have added one other point: The velocity of money (M1 Multiplier), is a key factor with regard to the inflation dynamic. Without velocity, inflation will be difficult to materialize. Are current conditions a new paradigm? Let's call it a velocity of money trap. (Credit to Jazzbumpa for bringing the M1 Multiplier condition to my attention.)nanutehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04526158764171117978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-89979571810217519652010-12-11T05:09:19.695-06:002010-12-11T05:09:19.695-06:00Reduced bond yields are not the Feds goal? I beg t...Reduced bond yields are not the Feds goal? I beg to differ. If the Fed is concerned with deflation,(Bernake has stated such), and is trying to increase inflation, real existing long term rates should decline. Granted, new issues may in fact offer higher nominal yields as recent market activity indicates. However; this could be attributed to the signal from the White House and Congress that more nanutenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-14467637190837991502010-12-10T13:21:56.518-06:002010-12-10T13:21:56.518-06:00Look at a longer time frame on the yield chart for...Look at a longer time frame on the yield chart for 10-yr treasuries. Delong conveniently has one on the top of his page.<br /><br />http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/<br /><br />Looks like just another tooth in the saw blade.<br /><br />In fact, current yield is about in the middle of the trend channel. It's hard for me to get excited until something dramatic happens, and this is a long way Jazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-54395872622562159272010-12-09T18:31:07.312-06:002010-12-09T18:31:07.312-06:00Nick,
The only solid evidence I know is that U.S....Nick,<br /><br />The only solid evidence I know is that U.S. consumer confidence is up. <br />http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101208-704108.html<br /><br />Others are looking to the new fiscal stimulus bill as improving the outlook. For example, the well-known economic forecaster Mark Zandi increased his 2011 forecast of real GDP from 3% to 4%. <br /> <br />So yes, my recovery David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-28246487654252598072010-12-09T17:37:21.001-06:002010-12-09T17:37:21.001-06:00Is there any independent evidence that expected re...Is there any independent evidence that expected real GDP growth is increasing?Nick Rowehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04982579343160429422noreply@blogger.com