tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post1418448856451951395..comments2024-03-22T02:37:15.030-05:00Comments on Macro Musings Blog: They Did It, They Did, They Did It!David Beckworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-5258923254787679872011-03-06T15:02:48.864-06:002011-03-06T15:02:48.864-06:00"I am adding an update that cites a paper tha..."I am adding an update that cites a paper that empirically shows this."<br /><br />Do you really think a study, of any type, can definitively "show" this? <br /><br />And have not the central banks of China and India been revving up their money supplies for years? <br /><br />Investors and lenders need to exercise caution. If you want to lend on property, demand only a 5 Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-50489624254881001952011-03-06T14:04:52.352-06:002011-03-06T14:04:52.352-06:00ECB:
Probably both, though I doubt Fed officials ...ECB:<br /><br />Probably both, though I doubt Fed officials saw it as them making up for the lack of a good social safety net. My reading of the Fed's minutes is they were genuinely trying to maintain full employment. <br /><br />By the way, I listened to an interesting interview of Daron Acemoglu where he questions Rajan's theory. There is still an inequality story, but its the David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-81300133859005432142011-03-06T13:14:20.836-06:002011-03-06T13:14:20.836-06:00It certainly is hard to tell a story about the cri...It certainly is hard to tell a story about the crisis without mentioning the role of monetary policy. But after reading Rajan's Fault Lines, one can argue that competition from China and India had caused a stagnation in incomes for a significant swathe of the American population. Faced with the jobless recovery after the dotcom crash, and worried about deflation, the Fed has to over-react to ecbnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-52309537285037920402011-03-05T22:00:09.308-06:002011-03-05T22:00:09.308-06:00All:
I am not saying it was only the Fed's fa...All:<br /><br />I am not saying it was only the Fed's fault. Rather, the Fed played a meaningful role in creating the global liquidity glut and this role has been either downplayed or ignored. <br /><br />Yes, the Fed's contribution to the boom depended on the dollar block countries recycling the U.S. monetary policy and yes, there were other contributing factors like structured financeDavid Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-91744278309885699912011-03-05T19:11:04.985-06:002011-03-05T19:11:04.985-06:00In the immortal words of David Hendry, "the e...In the immortal words of David Hendry, "the economy is a complicated dynamic, nonlinear, high dimensional evolving entity (Dynamic Econometrics, OUP, 1995).<br /><br />So good luck to you in establishing for definite who "caused" the financial crisis - be it the Fed or the Chinese or Bernie Madoff. Like everyone else, you pick your favorite whipping boy and select your evidence to ecbnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-72427967234015712872011-03-05T17:12:34.265-06:002011-03-05T17:12:34.265-06:00I still say that those who blame the Fed for a hou...I still say that those who blame the Fed for a housing boom (actually commercial property boom-busted too) are like alcoholics who blame the bartender for getting them drunk.<br /><br />BTW, Anthony Downs (Brookings) wrote a perceptive book "Niagara" about this topic.<br /><br />The fact is, global savings rates are high. We have Far East Asia, an aging Europe, and in the US a Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-80984801848430361032011-03-05T14:03:22.431-06:002011-03-05T14:03:22.431-06:00Pearson, I can not see the effect of revals.
But ...Pearson, I can not see the effect of revals. <br />But perhaps you think the current situation one near of equilibrium? I´d rather preffer a world where no country accumulate so huge volume of reserves, and one where free people choice its level of consumption. <br />In fact, we have two world, one ruled by free choice, the other by government.www.MiguelNavascues.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00880006105532291958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-53286205253532950802011-03-05T11:56:55.421-06:002011-03-05T11:56:55.421-06:00GSG adherents seem to focus blame on the BRIC poli...GSG adherents seem to focus blame on the BRIC policy of undervalued exchange rates. <br /><br />But what are the implications of large BRIC revals? During the brief period of modest Yuan revaluation, in 2008, our inflation rate shot up. The reval helped reverse a decade-long trend of China exporting deflation to us. In fact, U.S. China import inflation rose to an annualized 7%+ rate just David Pearsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-69184054302281251202011-03-05T04:22:33.348-06:002011-03-05T04:22:33.348-06:00David, I think that the saving glut doesn´t explai...David, I think that the saving glut doesn´t explain all, but it has its importance. See<br /><br />http://miguelnavascues.wordpress.com/2011/03/05/rajan-al-in-one-image/www.MiguelNavascues.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00880006105532291958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-83761376316739017062011-03-04T19:00:38.620-06:002011-03-04T19:00:38.620-06:00David - you are as guilty of understating the role...David - you are as guilty of understating the role of foreign (Chinese) oversaving as Janet Yellen is of overstating it. I think you are both missing the point: while there can be no doubt that the Chinese oversaved (i.e. had GINORMOUS piles of Dollars to do something with and chose not to spend them on U.S. goods, but rather to buy Treasuries) and snapped up Treasuries AT ANY PRICE, the reason DrJimnoreply@blogger.com