tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post6962201316601430863..comments2024-03-22T02:37:15.030-05:00Comments on Macro Musings Blog: Follow up to My Washington Post Piece on Secular StagnationDavid Beckworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-62346977071089024102014-07-22T13:07:45.305-05:002014-07-22T13:07:45.305-05:00Inflation is the most important factor influencing...Inflation is the most important factor influencing interest rates operating as it does thru the supply of and demand for loan funds. But there have been other significant influences. (1) The DIDMCA of March 31st 1980 provided the legal basis to turn 38,000 financial intermediaries into 38,000 commercial banks. (2)Regulation Q interest rate ceilings were removed. (3) The introduction of the Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-25554866090164638882014-07-19T21:33:40.535-05:002014-07-19T21:33:40.535-05:00lots of "natural" this and "natural...lots of "natural" this and "natural" that in this post. Justification by faith alone?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-46189637266918210962014-07-19T15:02:18.216-05:002014-07-19T15:02:18.216-05:00digital/tech expansion for me, secular stagnation ...digital/tech expansion for me, secular stagnation for thee. David, you're right, GDP doesn't cut it because different groups are experiencing different economies. For some, the US has been in secular stagnation for decades, for others its a growing economy. We need to be thinking about how to deal with this in terms of political solutions. It may be a little like 19th century when Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-64414453213229937472014-07-18T16:17:25.336-05:002014-07-18T16:17:25.336-05:00David, interesting post. Scott, in contrast, today...David, interesting post. Scott, in contrast, today said he accepts the "great stagnation hypothesis."<br /><br />Here's a post on forecasting inflation you might be interested in. It's the 3rd in a series of three posts prompted by Scott Sumner's question to the author yesterday:<br /><br />"...Does the model forecast P better than alternative approaches, like TIPS Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-71542321898693052792014-07-15T23:14:01.821-05:002014-07-15T23:14:01.821-05:00Jed, on one hand digitization does lower the capit...Jed, on one hand digitization does lower the capital requirements for innovation. We see that in smart phone apps. On the other hand, the kind of sustained rise in economic growth envisioned by Brynjofsson and McAffee is one that will require huge capital investments. For example, it will take a lot of investment spending to get a smart highway grid and cars for diverless future. And more robot David Beckworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-67260436573818544852014-07-15T21:14:51.220-05:002014-07-15T21:14:51.220-05:00I like your statement that increasing digitization...I like your statement that increasing digitization makes economic activity harder to measure in monetary terms, so we are under-measuring productivity. I believe this is true but did not know it was conventional wisdom already. <br /><br />I'm very curious what definition of productivity we should use here. The ones I know about use monetary metrics so don't reflect un-monentized jedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11258416181053973027noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-54176371294969566102014-07-15T19:53:29.520-05:002014-07-15T19:53:29.520-05:00good post and good article... thumbs up.good post and good article... thumbs up.Edward Lamberthttp://effectivedemand.typepad.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-8673867448704952912014-07-15T17:35:46.518-05:002014-07-15T17:35:46.518-05:00It seems to me that there is a demographic necessi...It seems to me that there is a demographic necessity to move production 20 to 30 years into the future, when the difference between consumption needs and productivity of the baby boomers will be at its widest. Investing in more productive widget manufacture today can't meet that need, because boomers can't buy the widgets today. They need widgets in 30 years, and the widget manufacturerKevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.com