![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOEd7GPOG5Co2bwyvs04URZm-Vxa5n-jchacN4Pma50P7PYSs9dpP0pHHA82aE3aMu3qVaeiz6ug19ZSu6QlZDszGsn7mtvd5VrcFCt0bNa5IITnDSDznV-RR6Xy2cyRzFBPuIIlhZMhs/s400/recession_dec.png)
Note that it spiked in September, came down in October and then picked up again in late November and has stayed there ever since. Does this pattern sound familiar? Take a look at the below graph.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3Oj0Jl0Cm2o-ntJeC6D8nGRLJ15hnyycYmvjF_fXf-q8qqgdfScXeHuWAXY66TYhzzaTLEhLfTrtn4A7JXih_5vYevIZ8j8A2rMn3QJmC4EBPb0VmndCEd5OxNDkxfgXuU7tD1_mm5qY/s400/libor+spread.bmp)
Non-Profound Conclusion: the economic outlook is tied very closely to the credit market outlook.
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