Monday, August 10, 2020

A Twitter Thread on Interest Rate Determination

Over in the twitterverse, this discussion on interest rate determination happened. 


  1. Great post. Can you direct us to any counter-arguments, from Joe or anyone else? Your argument seems pretty crushing, but I'd be interested in their responses.

    1. There are some rebuttals in the actual twitter thread. Claudio Borio at the BIS is probsbly the most prominent critic of this view and has provided counter arguments. For example:

  2. OT. David, I have an article that explains why since 2000 the prime age U.S lfpr has fallen vs large gains elsewhere. It also explains why business investment has been low as well as the fall in the labor share.

    The article is called Skill Stalagmites, Technology Stalactites and can be found here
    Do make sure to follow the link at the bottom of the article. That will take you to the full version of the article.

  3. The Fed tracks the one year Treasury, the chart clearly shows the Fed following it up, then following it down. Been doing this since the 80s.

    The Fed also implements a seigniorage tax when government needs the money, and the tax seems to be collected ultimately via retail banks.

    Otherwise the Fed yaps a lot and its actions generally fail once a generation when we default.